FOX 21 News, KQDS-DT

DULUTH - At the National Weather Service in Duluth, meteorologists rely on all sorts of information to predict the weather.

For the time being, all of that information points to a drier than normal winter.

"It's based on precipitation, which water content not snowfall. But in the winter most of our water that falls is in the form of snow," said Carol Christenson, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS in Duluth.

Forecasters like Christenson say a wavering El Niño, expected to develop by now, makes this year's winter outlook less certain than previous years.

"Things follow a certain pattern in an El Niño year and it's not occurring like we thought it would so things are changing," said Christenson.

The possibility for less precipitation has businesses that rely on it, feeling a little like this time last year.

"Any business in town that's snow sports oriented I’m sure has things left from last year that they'd like to see go," said Mick Dodds, manager at Ski Hut in Duluth.

Areas that have seen drought conditions over the past year should continue to see much of the same. But, despite the drier predictions and last year's mild winter, Christenson doesn't believe a trend is developing.

 "We've been trending anywhere from 78–80 inches of snow as our normal for the past 30 years," said Christenson. 

Christenson said the prediction is for a very wide area so areas more prone to snow, the Snow Belt areas from Ashland through the Upper Peninsula could see more.

She says no matter the snowfall, there most certainly will be a winter.

"The early snows that we've seen I think bode pretty well for business. We've been steady and we've seen a lot of people buying skis already and a lot of service work coming in," said Dodds.

 "It's a forecast. It's a three to four month out forecast so we have to take a look at that. It's going to be winter in Duluth. We're going to have some very cold temperatures. We're going to have snow," said Christenson.