Accumulating Snowfall Still Remains Plausible by Friday
The Northland is under the influence of another clipper system tonight, but after this weak storm, a larger complex system will move in Thursday with lasting effect into the weekend. The storm in question is currently moving onshore over British Columbia in Canada with heavy rains along the shore and mountain snows on the higher elevations. By tomorrow night, the low pressure will move into North Dakota with a warm front extending from that area down into the Central Plains. A cold front will extend from North Dakota into Montana.
The storm will then begin to weaken as it advances into the Northland. Rain will begin during the afternoon. The rain and snow line will be along the Borderlands. Cold air will then start to sink in as the storm moves east with a strong arctic high pressure to the west. These systems working in junction will allow that rain and snow line to drop farther and farther south throughout the overnight. Temperatures will be crucial for the potential of snowfall accumulation. More of the latest data coming in has been backing off on the deep layer of cold air needed for snow growth and snowfall accumulation. Temperatures at the surface will also be an important factor for accumulation. It does appear that overnight Thursday into Friday morning, temperatures will be in the lower 30s and upper 20s north of Highway 2 in Northeast Minnesota.
By Friday morning, he center of low pressure will be near Green Bay with that cold air continuing to sick into the Northland. Temperatures that will start off in the 40s in Northwest Wisconsin will begin to dip into the 30s as the day continues. Snowfall accumulation will be hard to come by with temperatures above freezing though during the day. Then another round of some accumulations will happen Friday night into Saturday morning as temperatures drop during the overnight.
The latest data is backing off on the amount of snowfall for the Northland. The best case scenario looks to be near 4 inches for The Borderlands with about 1-2 inches everywhere else for highest amounts. Along the lakeshore, snowfall accumulation will be very difficult. It will likely be rain that falls by the lake with some snow flakes mixing in at times but snow accumulation should not occur. Lake effect snow showers will linger in parts of the South Shore and the U.P. into Saturday evening and Sunday morning as the low pressure then exits out of the country and into Canada.
More updates to come for the first potential area wide accumulating snowfall event!
-Chief Metoorologist Gino Recchia