iEmergent’s latest U.S. mortgage forecast validation confirms industry-leading accuracy

– New analysis shows iEmergent’s mortgage origination projections outperforming other publicly available forecasts over a six-year period –

DES MOINES, Iowa, Dec. 2, 2025 (SEND2PRESS NEWSWIRE) — iEmergent, a forecasting and advisory services firm for the financial services, mortgage and real estate industries, released a new analysis validating that its U.S. purchase mortgage origination forecasts continue to lead the industry in accuracy, outperforming other publicly available forecasts such as those published by Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) over the last six years.

iEmergent’s forecasting approach centers on the Purchase Mortgage Generation Rate (PMGR), a proprietary metric that represents the rate at which a defined market produces purchase mortgages. The PMGR simplifies forecasting by capturing the complexity of the U.S. mortgage market, including economic and demographic factors, homebuyer behavior and decades of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) loan data. When paired with a demand-driven view of the homebuyer pool, this bottom-up model—which can be applied at any geographic level from the individual census tract to the entire nation—delivers reliable insight into where and when mortgage activity will emerge.

For the six-year period spanning 2019 to 2024, iEmergent achieved a 9.5% mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for ‘next year’s’ forecasts (projections issued a year in advance) and a 3.9% MAPE for ‘last estimate’ forecasts (projections released a few months ahead of HMDA’s annual release of actual loan counts). And over the past three years (2022–2024), iEmergent’s forecast accuracy has improved even further, achieving an 8.4% MAPE for ‘next year’s’ forecasts and a 1.2% MAPE for ‘last estimate’ forecasts.

“These results demonstrate the strength of iEmergent’s proprietary forecasting model and why our approach consistently leads the industry in accuracy,” iEmergent COO Bernard Nossuli said. “Lenders need a dependable way to see where mortgage opportunity will take shape, and iEmergent’s model gives them that insight well before traditional indicators emerge.”

iEmergent’s purchase mortgage forecast accuracy remains high even when projections are segmented by borrower race and ethnicity. The company also delivers strong refi mortgage forecast accuracy, maintaining an error rate in the 2% range despite growing refinance market volatility.

For a closer look at iEmergent’s novel and highly accurate approach to forecasting U.S. mortgage originations, read the company’s methodology blog post.

About iEmergent

Founded in 2000, iEmergent provides mortgage lending forecasts and analytics to the lending, housing and real estate industries. The company offers an extensive variety of forecast and market intelligence products, including Mortgage MarketSmart, a visualization tool that helps lenders quantify how mortgage markets will change. For more information, visit https://www.iemergent.com/.

Tags: @iEmergent #mortgagelending #mortgage #origination #housingdata

Media Kit:

https://www.iemergent.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/presskit_digitallinked.pdf

NEWS SOURCE: iEmergent

Keywords: Mortgage, iEmergent provides mortgage lending forecasts and analytics to the lending, housing and real estate industries, DES MOINES, Iowa

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