How Keir Starmer could be replaced as UK leader if Epstein fallout brings him down

LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a battle to stay in post as he comes under heavy criticism for his decision in 2024 to appoint veteran politician Peter Mandelson as the British ambassador to the U.S. despite the latter’s ties to late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Starmer’s judgment is in the spotlight like never before after the recent release of millions of pages of Epstein-related documents by the U.S. Justice Department showed how close Mandelson and Epstein were.

There’s widespread anger that the prime minister appointed Mandelson, long a key figure of Starmer’s own Labour Party, to such a sensitive and high-profile post.

Starmer fired Mandelson in September after an earlier batch of emails was published showing he remained friends with Epstein after the late financier’s 2008 conviction for sex offenses involving a minor.

But the newly released emails show that Mandelson also passed on sensitive — and potentially market-moving — government information to the disgraced financier in 2009, when he was a member of the Labour Cabinet.

Starmer’s leadership has now been called into question, and several Labour lawmakers have called for him to quit. His chief of staff resigned on Sunday, taking the blame for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, and his communications director quit on Monday.

Many believe that is not enough to keep Starmer in the job.

The prime minister is trying to persuade his party members to back him. He has apologized to the British public and to the victims of Epstein’s sex trafficking for believing what he has termed “Mandelson’s lies.”

There are a number of ways in which Starmer could go, some more straightforward than others.

The easiest way

The simplest option is that Starmer announces his intention to resign, triggering an election for the Labour leadership. A resignation could possibly come if a delegation of Cabinet members tell Starmer he has lost too much support within the party or if members of his government quit in protest.

Those considered to harbor leadership ambitions include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and former deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, who had to resign last year after admitting she didn’t pay enough tax on a house purchase. An investigation into that is ongoing.

But there’s no clear front-runner.

Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Manchester who was blocked from standing at a special election in the city later this month, would not be eligible because by longstanding convention the prime minister must be a member of Parliament.

Whoever does run, the election would likely take weeks, with Starmer likely staying in post until that concludes.

If Starmer decides to resign immediately, the Cabinet and Labour’s governing body would likely pick an interim leader to be prime minister, probably someone not standing to be Labour leader. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy could fit the bill.

Under Labour’s rules, candidates must have the support of a fifth of party lawmakers — about 80.

The wider party membership would then vote to choose a winner.

King Charles III would invite the winner to become prime minister and form a government.

The not so easy way

If Starmer does not resign, he could face a challenge, potentially from within his Cabinet.

Unlike the Conservative Party, which has a history of getting rid of leaders such as Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Boris Johnson in 2022, Labour does not have that muscle memory. No Labour prime minister has ever been dislodged, though Tony Blair announced his plan to resign in 2007 after a series of low-level resignations.

Challengers would have to meet the eligibility thresholds above, but Starmer would automatically be on the ballot.

Starmer faces a series of hurdles in the weeks ahead. The first will probably be when files related to the vetting of Mandelson are published. Starmer will be hoping they show the scale of Mandelson’s lies. Should they not, that could be a point of high jeopardy for the prime minister.

Another potential pitfall could be the special election in Gorton and Denton on Feb. 26, traditionally a safe Labour seat. However, this time it will be a tough fight, with challenges from the anti-immigration Reform U.K. on the right and the Greens on the left.

After that comes a raft of elections in May. Many in Labour fear the party could lose power in Wales for the first time since the legislature was created in 1999, fall way short in Scotland and get battered in local elections in England.

It’s clear that Starmer faces a difficult landscape.

And that’s barring surprise developments that could further rock his premiership.

“Events, dear boy, events,” Harold Macmillan, prime minister between 1957 and 1963, said when asked what the greatest challenges for leaders were.