A mess in Texas? What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries

NEW YORK (AP) — The 2026 midterm season begins in earnest on Tuesday with two of the nation’s most consequential Senate primaries playing out in Texas, a political behemoth that Democrats have been fighting to flip for decades.

Is this the year? Republican leaders in Washington openly fret that a victory by conservative firebrand Ken Paxton over four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn would give Democrats a rare shot of winning the seat come November. The contest has already cost Republicans tens of millions of dollars, and there will be much more spent ahead of a May 26 runoff if no one gets 50% in the three-way primary that also includes Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Democrats, meanwhile, are picking between two rising stars with conflicting styles. There’s U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who made a name for herself through confrontation, and state Rep. James Talarico, a former middle school teacher who is working toward a divinity degree.

Primaries are also taking place in North Carolina and Arkansas. Voting comes just days after President Donald Trump launched a major military campaign against Iran, injecting an urgent foreign policy component in races otherwise focused on domestic issues.

Here’s what to watch for on Tuesday.

Is the Democrats’ Texas threat for real this time?

Democrats have been raising the prospect of a Texas upset for decades. And yet the party hasn’t won a Senate race there since Lloyd Bentsen’s reelection in 1988.

Both sides believe this could be the year that things change. But much depends on Tuesday’s results.

Some Republican leaders in Washington, including key allies of Trump, warn that a victory by Paxton, who has well-documented personal baggage, would undermine their chances in November. If he’s the nominee, the party would need to divert tens of millions of dollars from other states to protect the seat.

Paxton could finish first on Tuesday, although he’s not expected to earn the 50% needed to avoid a May 26 runoff election against the second-place finisher. For now, Cornyn is most likely to claim that position, while Hunt has made an aggressive case as well.

The runoff could get even uglier for a party that has already spent more than $100 million on the nomination fight, making it the most expensive primary in state history.

What kind of fighter do Dems want?

Democrats have a tough choice on their side as they decide what kind of fighter it wants to run against Trump’s Republican Party.

Privately, Republicans say they’re most worried about Talarico. The 36-year-old Democrat blends progressive politics with biblical fluency in a way that is uncommon among many national Democratic figures.

Talarico denounces “politics as a blood sport” and says people want “a return to more timeless values of sincerity and honesty and compassion and respect.”

On the other side is 44-year-old Crocket, a former civil rights attorney who has feuded with Republicans and drawn Trump’s scorn. One of her advertisements boasts that she “drives the president crazy.” Another has the tagline “Crockett fights for us.”

Former Vice President Kamala Harris backed Crockett in a recorded call that went out across the state over the weekend.

“Texas has the chance to send a fighter like Jasmine Crockett to the United States Senate,” Harris said.

Does war with Iran change anything?

The primary elections come just three days after the U.S., in coordination with Israel, launched a major attack against Iran. Trump has suggested the military campaign could take at least four weeks. At least six U.S. soldiers have already been killed and the president predicts more deaths.

Foreign policy rarely shapes U.S. elections, although the timing of the conflict could certainly help shift voters’ attention in primaries that have largely focused on issues at home. Texas, after all, is home to many military families.

The Republican candidates have overwhelmingly aligned themselves with Trump and his “America First” movement. The president’s aggressive interventions overseas could complicate that message and force his allies to answer difficult questions.

So far, Cornyn and Paxton have been quick to line up behind Trump. “Hopefully lives will not be lost needlessly, but this always entails risk,” Cornyn said Saturday.

What’s at stake for Trump?

The president sits at the very center of Tuesday’s contests whether he is on the ballot or not.

Trump visited Texas on Friday and dangled a potential endorsement in the Senate race. But on the eve of the primary, he had yet to make a pick.

All of the Republican candidates have worked to convince voters they are aligned with Trump, who remains overwhelmingly popular among the primary electorate. Former Trump campaign chief Chris LaCivita is on the Cornyn payroll as well.

Trump stars in the Democratic primary as well, where Crockett, far more than Talarico, has grown a national brand based on her fierce opposition to Trump.

Depending on Tuesday’s results, Texas may play a prominent role in the balance of power in Congress for the last two years of Trump’s term. And he certainly doesn’t want to be known as the Republican president who presided over Texas’ shift blue.

Don’t sleep on North Carolina

Texas may dominate the chattering class, but North Carolina may be just as important — if not more — for the makeup of the Senate come November.

Even before Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement last June, North Carolina presented Democrats with one of few opportunities to flip a Republican-held seat in an otherwise difficult electoral map.

Former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper is the dominant figure in the six-person Democratic field. The most prominent name in the Republican field is Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair who has Trump’s backing.

A more competitive primary is expected in North Carolina’s 4th District, where incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee, 69, is facing progressive Nida Allam, 32, who has endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., among other progressives.

Allam, a county commissioner and the first Muslim woman ever elected to public office in North Carolina, is campaigning on a message of a “brighter future.”